In This Issue Fed members talk dovish Do

first_imgIn This Issue. * Fed members talk dovish!. * Dollar is softer ahead of Jobs Jamboree! * Data from around the globe. * A Big Announcement! And Now. Today’s A Pfennig For Your Thoughts. It’s A Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good Day!…  And a Happy Friday to one and all! Another day, another day of me feeling the blahs, but no debacle at dinner, thankfully, as I ate alone last night here, and didn’t go out. I certainly don’t want to have to live with fear that every time I go out I have to leave and go outside for fresh air. So, I’ll just leave that there, and move on, with hopes that I never experience that again. I really overslept this morning. That’s a rare thing for me to do, and that has put me way behind, time-wise, this morning. Who knows, maybe, I’ll still be writing when the Jobs Jamboree begins! Nah. I don’t believe that will happen, but at this point, who knows? HEY! I have a Big Announcement in the FWIW section today, so be sure you don’t skip to the last paragraph from here! Speaking of who knows. Who knows what the BLS has in store for us today? I have my thoughts, of which, you can bet your sweet bippie, I’ll share with you, right here, right now. It’s all a party in the U.S. these days, sure the data prints don’t warrant such a thing, but it’s a party nonetheless, and with that, we have certain expectations for the jobs data. And those expectations are running wild this morning. Yes, I’ve seen the “calls” for this data all over the board with most of the calls being for a very strong report. So, the risk to the dollar and the markets this morning is that the Jobs report isn’t as strong as expected (+240K).  I doubt the BLS will have any of that though! I look for another blow-out month according to the BLS.  Which will kick-start the dollar today, going into the weekend. As of right now, the dollar is backing off its stance this week of kicking tail and taking names later, and the green/peachback is softer right now. Of course, all that will probably change given the BLS’s propensity to ratchet up the jobs numbers with their hedonic adjustments, and whatever voodoo they use.  In Norway and Switzerland this morning, we had CPI prints (consumer inflation), so let’s start there and work our way around the globe this morning, eh? Norwegian inflation remained steady in December, printing at 2.4% year on year. the “experts” were expecting for inflation to inch higher to 2.5%, but in reality, Norway has what every other stupid Central Bank in the world wants. Inflation above 2%!  And having inflation remain above 2%, which happens to be the target rate, should light a fire under the krone traders and spur them to rally the currency, but the traders must have already headed for the pubs this Friday, because so far. nothing, nada, nil, and so on. Switzerland also printed their CPI for December, and their inflation was slightly softer than expected printing at -.3% year on year, VS -.2% consensus. The cross to the euro remains stuck at 1.2010, dangerously close to the floor of 1.20, but for now, it appears no one has the intestinal fortitude to test the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) claim that they would defend the cross. The late great, Dan Fogelberg has a song playing on the iPod right now called: The Last Nail. I used to play this song on the guitar, I like it that much. But that’s not why I mentioned it. The title of the song: The Last Nail, yes. it reminds me of something here.. What will be the last nail that requires the SNB to defend the cross rate? Aussie Retail Sales for November (Geez Louise that was a long time ago!), were weaker than expected printing at just +.1% VS +.2% expected. With such paltry expectations, I guess the markets didn’t really care that the actual print didn’t meet expectations, because the Aussie dollar (A$) has carved out a gain this morning. In the U.K. this morning, their string of weaker than the average bear economic data prints, continued, as Industrial Production fell -.1% in December, VS calls for +.2%. The weak construction component  was to blame for this weak IP report. But think about this for a minute folks. it took the U.K. about 6 months to work through the eye of their storm, and brought about all kinds of euphoric talk about rate hikes and happy days being there again for the economy, and then the back side of the storm began to show up on the shores, and since then, it’s been one bad economic report after another one, the euphoria is gone, the talk of rate hikes are gone, and the only thing left here is a mountain of debt.  So.. how long will it take for the eye of the storm to move through the U.S.? Yes, leave it to me to talk about the things to come on a day when the Jobs Jamboree will probably have Superman strength. Hey, I look at it like this. that was last month! I would rather keep looking forward!  Speaking of looking forward. Today, one of the biggest doves on the Fed’s roster of members, Evans, is scheduled to speak right after the Jobs Jamboree prints. I expect him to be singing from the same song sheet as the two Fed members who spoke at different venues last night, Kocherlakota and Rosengren, both talked and talked about the need to remain patient with regards to rate hikes.  These talks have played with the markets a little bit overnight, and that’s why the dollar is a bit softer as we head into the Jobs Jamboree. The long dollar position trade just keeps getting more crowded folks. I’m of the opinion that these things work themselves out in the long run, but when you first notice them, it makes it difficult to remain with conviction given what you think should happen doesn’t.. But it will eventually, and the longer it takes to unwind, the larger the unwinding will be. Clear? Probably clear as mud, Chuck! You switch around and lead these people to the water, only to have the stream dried up! You knucklehead! Stop making these people use their noggins to finish your thoughts, do it for them! HAHAHAHAHA!  Yes, the evil twin, Chuck, just got hold of the keyboard. sorry about that! Well, Gold is up a few bucks this morning. Platinum is the best performing metal and Silver is the worst performing this morning, with Palladium somewhere in the middle there. We had a talk the other day about the metals, and I mentioned something that I wrote earlier this week, about how Porter Stansberry, analyst and writer, extraordinaire, said last week that Gold was ready to lift off from its level below $1,200. I had to mention it to the people I was talking to, because apparently they hadn’t read the Pfennig!  HAHAHAHA!  So. the U.S. Data Cupboard had the Consumer Credit data yesterday, and while the debt number didn’t hit $15 Billion, it did hit $14 Billion and. the previous month’s number of $13 Billion was revised up to nearly $16 Billion!!!!  See how that plays so well in the sandbox with the strong Retail Sales in November? And the upward revision to GDP? It’s all about deficit spending once again. do we ever learn anything?  Apparently not! So, today’s Jobs Jamboree, as I said above is expecting a print of 240,000, with the Unemployment Rate slipping to 5.7% from 5.8%…  And again, I’ll tell you that if it were just me, I would drop reporting this data like a bad habit!  It’s all smoke and mirrors to me, with surveys and adjustments to soothe out the numbers. But, it’s a Big Deal in the markets, so here I am playing Jobs Jockey. And I love doing it so much!  NOT! For What It’s Worth. Here’s the BIG Announcement I told you about above. I kept hinting at the end of the year that there were going to be some Big Changes coming in the New Year, and so, with no further ado, here’s Frank Trotter. Alright friends, you have seen the heavy groups, now you will see morning maniac music. Believe me, yeah. It’s a new dawn.” – Grace Slick The New Year always feels fresh, like that new dawn.  This makes no sense of course. It¹s just another day.  But like the start of a new semester, marriage, season, birth, death or other event we mentally note the time and place and forge ahead.  Semisonic sings that “Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”  And so it is with some of us here at EverBank. For me, that some other beginning has been as some form of President of, EverBank or EverBank Direct (a division of EverBank) for the past fifteen years.   I am very excited to announce that I will return to my home base in 2015 as Chairman of EverBank Global Markets which incorporates our investing oriented businesses: World Markets, EverBank Wealth Management, and EverTrade Direct Brokerage. In addition I’ll be spending a significant amount of my time in expanding the commentary and resources for clients at EverBank.  This is just taking shape now but we plan to broaden the actionable analysis we provide to you well beyond our cornerstone Pfennig and Review and Focus. Speaking of the Pfennig, joining me in this will be my longtime colleague (34 years) and the oracle of the Daily Pfennig for almost 23 years, Chuck Butler.  Chuck has become Managing Director of Global Markets and we will be working closely together to expand the reach and insights offered by EverBank.  Of course Chuck still has the ‘con’ on the Pfennig and you’ll see his great thoughts every weekday as usual- and maybe even more. Finally, Chris Gaffney will take over as President of EverBank World Markets.  Chris was the first person to join me full time at Mark Twain Banks after we created the WorldCurrency® family of deposits and has been a senior executive with this group for most of the past twenty years. Many if not most of you know Chris or have spoken with him during his long tenure as a team leader.  If you read the Wall Street Journal or many other publications you’ve also seen him there several times a week. After the Grace Slick introduction Jefferson Airplane broke into ‘Revolution’, their 60’s era anthem.  I’m not quite sure we have a full revolution in place here, but I do think that the New Dawn will bring a lot of new opportunities for you to consider. And so, back to your regularly scheduled broadcast, yet another excellent Daily Pfennig. Chuck again: I think this will be a lot of fun and allow me to give even more time and energy to interpreting the global marketplace.  Frank and I will partner together to bring more information about everything that goes into life and investments. We call it EverBank Insights! I can’t begin to tell you how excited I am to be working with Frank in this new challenging endeavor. To recap. The dollar is softer today ahead of the Jobs Jamboree which is expected to be strong again with a 240,000 jobs gain for December. Kocherlakota and Rosengren talked last night and showed their true dove colors, which I believe has the dollar softer this morning, as they talked about the need to be patient with regards to rate hikes. Switzerland, Australia, U.K. and Norway all printed data this morning, and while most of it was weaker than expected, the expectations are so muted right now, the markets are looking past these prints. And Gold is up a couple of bucks this morning. Nothing to get too excited about, and Chuck’s evil twin got hold of the keyboard this morning. Currencies today 1/9/15. American Style: A$ .8135, kiwi .7810, C$ .8450, euro 1.1815, sterling 1.5145, Swiss $ .9840 ,.  European Style: rand 11.5740, krone 7.6625, SEK 8.0445, forint 268.65, zloty 3.6200, koruna 23.6960, RUB 61.37, yen 119.25, sing 1.3370, HKD 7.7535, INR 62.32, China 6.1296, pesos 14.66, BRL 2.6665, Dollar Index 92.13, Oil $48.78, 10-year 2.00%, Silver $16.31, Platinum $1,221.00, Palladium $793.85, and Gold. $1,212.24 That’s it for today. Well. How about those changes here at EverBank? I can still call Frank “the Big Boss” because he’s still my boss! I had changed my signature on emails the first of the year, as I was no longer the President of EverBank World Markets, the division that I had guided for 15 years, but not one person caught the change of the title. That was good, because I wasn’t able to discuss the change until now. So, there are more things to talk about that are still to come, so stay tuned same bat time, same bat channel!  Stevie Wonder’s song: I Wish, is playing on the iPod, talk about a movin, and grovin song! His album which this song is from was titled: Songs in the key of life. I owned that album and played it over and over again, back in 1976 when it first came out! I was 3 years removed from having long hair, and playing my guitar in a band. I was all cleaned up and running the margin department at a regional brokerage house, was about to get married, and I drove a 1970 Cadillac Eldorado that was crème de la crème. That was a long time ago, eh? Nearly 40 years. Where did the years go? Can you recall what you were doing in 1976?  Well, if I’m going to beat the Jobs Jamboree print, I had better get off this bus right here! I hope you can make this a Fantastico Friday! Chuck Butler President EverBank World Marketslast_img